{"id":483,"date":"2026-06-04T21:00:21","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T21:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/californiamovingreport.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/04\/the-top-two-primary-was-supposed-to-change-california-politics-did-it-flop\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T21:00:21","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T21:00:21","slug":"the-top-two-primary-was-supposed-to-change-california-politics-did-it-flop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/californiamovingreport.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/04\/the-top-two-primary-was-supposed-to-change-california-politics-did-it-flop\/","title":{"rendered":"The top-two primary was supposed to change California politics. Did it flop?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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For all the talk of a governor\u2019s race between two Republicans, or even two Democrats, it\u2019s looking like voters are in for a typical partisan matchup in November.<\/p>

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In predictably Democratic California, there\u2019s no need for a political science degree or a crystal ball to confidently predict the result of a general election face-off between Xavier Becerra, the current Democratic front-runner, and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican.<\/p>\n

Despite the top-two primary system in which the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party, likely Democratic cakewalks abound further down the ballot after Tuesday\u2019s election.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So why is it so rare in California, which hasn\u2019t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006 and where Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans almost two-to-one, to put two Democrats on the ballot in the general election?<\/p>\n

For all its political reputation as the left coast, California is simply not overwhelmingly Democratic enough to regularly advance two Democrats to the general election, said Andrew Sinclair, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College who has studied the effects of California\u2019s top two.\u00a0<\/p>\n

With Democratic candidates regularly earning roughly 60% of the statewide vote, the electorate is sufficiently left-leaning to make the outcome of Democrat-versus-Republican general elections fairly predictable. But Democrats don\u2019t make up quite enough of the vote share to push two Democratic candidates through the open primary except in somewhat unusual circumstances, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter about 60% to 65% Democratic vote share, it starts to get much more likely to get D-on-D races,\u201d he said. In recent statewide races, the percentage of votes cast for the Democratic candidate has hovered around 60%, \u201cright in the electoral dead zone,\u201d said Sinclair.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The promise of top two<\/strong><\/h2>\n

It wasn\u2019t supposed to be this way.<\/p>\n

California\u2019s unusual \u201ctop two\u201d election system puts every candidate on the same primary ballot; the first and second place winners progress to the general election. The idea, approved by voters in 2010, was advertised as an engine of both political moderation and more meaningful choice. Both the Democratic and Republican parties were opposed.<\/p>\n

Proponents argued that pulling candidates out of a purely partisan primary system would encourage them to appeal to voters across the ideological spectrum, rather than just the party base.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The new voting scheme would \u201cchange the dysfunctional political system and get rid of the paralysis and the partisan bickering\u201d in California politics, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed the proposition, said at the time.<\/p>\n

In districts where one party dominates the field, allowing multiple candidates from that same party to compete was meant to make general elections competitive.<\/p>\n

But if current election results hold \u2014 and with so many ballots still left to count, they may not \u2014 Californians don\u2019t appear likely to see many competitive statewide races in November.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In Tuesday\u2019s races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, controller and treasurer, a series of high-profile, well-financed Democrats are competing against Republicans who range from long- to longer-shot. In congressional contests in West Los Angeles and Napa Valley, where upstart progressives challenged moderate incumbents, the upstarts appear to have been boxed out, leaving the two veteran Democratic representatives, Mike Thompson and Brad Sherman, to face ill-fated Republicans.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A notable exception is the insurance commissioner\u2019s race, in which two Democrats \u2014 Jane Kim and Ben Allen \u2014 hold the two top spots. The 2018 lieutenant governor\u2019s race was also a Dem-on-Dem contest. It\u2019s happened a few times in U.S. Senate races. But in most cases, a reversion to the polarized partisan norm is the rule.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s in part thanks to the primary electorate itself.<\/p>\n

Fewer voters tend to turn out in June elections, and those who do tend to be committed partisans prepared to vote for one party or another. Though the top-two system is officially nonpartisan, Democratic voters treat it like a partisan primary, herding around the person they consider the strongest representative of their party, with Republicans doing the same, said Eric McGhee, a political researcher at the Public Policy Institute of California.<\/p>\n

There may be a handful of \u201cpure independents in the middle\u201d who will swing between parties, moderating the outcome and potentially crossing party lines to put a centrist over the top.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But such voters are rare \u2014 especially in June.<\/p>\n

Case in point: Matt Mahan, the moderate Democratic mayor of San Jose who ran for governor criticizing \u201cextremism on both sides.\u201d With his focus on pocketbook issues and promises to limit his own party\u2019s state spending, Mahan was the \u201cposter child\u201d for a top-two system designed for \u201call those so-called people who are going to come to the middle,\u201d said Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe got 4%,\u201d said Maviglio, a top-two critic who voted for Mahan. \u201cVoters are partisan, at the end of the day.\u201d<\/p>\n

Does the system create more moderates?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Californians are much more likely to see same-party general election contests in local races, where an individual district is more likely than the state as a whole to be overwhelmingly dominated by one party.<\/p>\n

In congressional races in the San Francisco Bay Area, Sacramento and across Los Angeles and in legislative races in liberal enclaves across California, two Democrats are on track to head to November.\u00a0<\/p>\n

USC political science professor Christian Grose said over the last decade, about a third of legislative general election races have been between two members of the same party.<\/p>\n

Removing the choice between parties from the general election can have benefits like allowing voters to choose based on true policy differences or perceptions of competence rather than simply siding with a party, he said. But it can also invite voters to make choices based on \u201cthings not related to governance,\u201d like gender or race.\u00a0<\/p>\n